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| Demand for the F-150 Lightning has been cooling off, alongside EV sales in general in recent months. Ford is now forced to make adjustments. |
EV demand has been cooling some in recent months in the United States. Last year, EV sales made up around 7.5% of all U.S. new car sales. However, in 2022, year-over-year EV sales saw around a 90% overall increase - this number was not matched in 2023. Now, several automakers, such as Ford, are adjusting their pricing, production targets and new release timelines to align with declining sales. One such example is the F-150 Lightning.
Ford has announced that they will cut F-150 Lightning
production at the Rouge Electric Vehicle Center. This is due to falling demand
of Lightning - there will be only one shift starting on April 1st. About 1,400
workers will be affected and some will transfer to other Ford facilities while
others will be offered an early retirement plan. For good measure, let’s
remember that the gas-powered F-Series has been the best selling vehicle in
America for decades.
Why the Decline?
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| From the Detroit Auto Show 2022 - Lightning Ride Along Experience |
So what’s leading to this decline in sales for EVs? There’s a few factors I can think of. The first is the high cost of many EVs, even with the availability of the tax credit. It’s hard to ignore that while electric vehicles have many advantages in lowering emissions while improving performance, it’s hard to justify the high cost of entry many times. I recently went to look at an F-150 Lightning at my local Ford dealer and it cost $95,000! Even with a sizable down payment and the max $7,500 tax credit, you’d still be looking at an $80,000+ truck! Well out of the average consumer’s budget.
Other factors would be a still-developing charging infrastructure. Now to combat this, Ford announced last year that it was adopting the North American Charging Standard (NACS) on all 2025 EV models. Existing customers will receive an adapter starting in 2024 that would allow them access to the Tesla Supercharger network, in addition to the 10,000 DC fast chargers already in the Blue Oval network. Until this shift is fully in place, charging stations could still be a little tricky to navigate, especially in colder weather as we’ve seen.
Finally, we have a situation where all of the early adopters could likely have gotten what they’ve wanted. So the pinned up demand is now tapering off. This actually doesn’t just apply to the F-150 Lightning, either. If you’ve been paying attention, inventory levels for the new Bronco have risen drastically in recent months after there being a waitlist to get one. Now, Ford is offering incentives for the first time, especially to Jeep owners, to move Broncos. I won’t be surprised if we see steeper incentives on the Lightning to move them off lots. Every automaker needs to access current market conditions along with customer needs in order to not end up with excess inventory and achieve profitability. Especially in a rapidly advancing EV world, with new ones announced every day it seems.
Would you ever consider an F-150 Lightning? I might. I rode in one at the 2022 Detroit Auto Show and thought it was a cool truck and a blast to experience. Let’s keep an eye on inventory and sales numbers to see how this scenario plays out for Ford and the wider budding EV truck market. There may be opportunities for niche players, such as Rivian, to capitalize on the Lightning’s slower sales if analyzed and targeted correctly.
F-150 Lightning Ride Along at the 2022 NAIAS: https://youtube.com/shorts/88cAQg9LFAU?si=epjNub3pBFtwyY4u
Ford Global Sales Figures, Good Car Bad Car link: https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/sales-by-automaker/ford-motor-company-global-sales-data-reports/
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| I've had several chances to get up close with the F-150 Lightning, as well as the other EV truck competitors. Its nice in person! The frunk is one of the largest I've seen. |
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| Exploring the HUMMER EV at Motor Bella 2021 |
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